I’m no mathematician, but I’ve come to some interesting conclusions from “running the numbers” on the Obamacare debacle.
First, about 14 million people are covered under the individual health insurance market.
Of those, in 2013, 13% were covered by grandfathered plans; or plans that could be renewed for 2014. So that’s 1.82 million who for sure can “keep their plans;” at least for 2014.
That means as many as 87% of individual health plans could be cancelled.
We know for sure that as of last week (this is a week by week changing number) 4.8 million people have already gotten cancellation notices. These are people who were covered this year, and if they want to continue to be covered, need to choose and purchase new insurance plans by January 1st.
The CBO estimated that 7 million people would be covered in the health insurance exchanges in 2014, but that was an estimate based on a fully functional Obamacare website. I’ve no doubt that that the Obamacare site will eventually be fixed, but how long will that take? I’m pretty comfortable guessing that the problems will not be fixed by the end of November, as promised by the administration.
The administration estimates that 200,000 people have signed up for coverage with the exchanges by mid-November. That means as of right now, of the people who had coverage under the individual health insurance market this year, 4.6 million of them still don’t have coverage for 2014. Although I’m sure that the number of enrolled people will steadily increase over the next few weeks, does anyone think that the remaining people who lost their coverage because of the Obamacare requirements will have coverage by the start of the New Year?
Even the Obama administration isn’t that optimistic.
That means that thanks to Obamacare, more people will start off the year without health insurance coverage than had it this year. Congratulations President Obama! You’ve successfully wrecked the nation’s health insurance market! I think the administration should have applied the lessons learned from the Hypocratic Oath: First, do no harm. Instead, the administration burned down the house, only to learn that their plans for the new house were incomplete.
If the percentage of uninsured in this country is greater this time next year than it is now, it will be pretty clear who will be responsible for it. I hope someone is smart enough to remind people of that for the elections.