I had a fairly substantial improvement in the predictions biz success rate this year so let me take a moment to brag:
Now to my predictions!
Mueller’s Investigation will not show any collusion between Trump or the Trump campaign and Russia to “hack” the election.
Easy win. The charge was absurd to begin with, so the only uncertainty was when the report would be released, not what it would say. So the much awaited “Mueller Time” turned out to be a big goose egg for the Democrats and media. Not that it mattered. They still believe Trump is a Russkie spy anyway.
The House Judiciary Committee will vote on articles of impeachment this year.
This was getting a little down to the wire, but the Judiciary committee finally voted on impeachment. Of course, even if they hadn’t I might have taken the credit for this anyway since the House did hold an “impeachment inquiry” then of course a full vote in the House. But I still win even with my very specific prediction. I must have powers!
Sorry Bill Maher, but no recession by the end of this year.
Not just Maher, but multiple economists all generated “reports” stating that the economy had topped out and would begin sliding into recession or that Trump’s crazy trade policy would push us into recession; in any case, the economy would be in recession in time for the 2020 election. This sounded like a lot of wishful thinking, and considering some of the sources (I’m looking at you Mark Zandi!) I figured this was a hope, not a data driven prediction.
In spite of that “hard date” of October 31, 2019, I had a suspicion that with a government jam packed with remainers, it would be next to impossible to push Brexit through this year, and on that I was correct. Of course, the recent British elections have cleared that logjam, so next year may be a different story.
President Trump will have another Supreme Court nomination to make by the end of the year
This was my choke point. I thought that Clarence Thomas might see the opportunity to resign and get a strict constructionist, a much younger one, to replace him. Instead, Thomas is having the time of his life and shows no sign of leaving. RBG is apparently much sicker than was known this time last year but I saw a Thomas graceful exit as more likely than Ruth Bader Ginsberg being carried out.
So that gives me an 80% success rate this year. Let’s see if I can maintain that level of success next year!