2020 Predictions Wrap Up

My Prediction mojo usually gets wobbly during Presidential election years and this year was no different.  Not to mention that 2020 turned out to be…2020.  I sure didn’t see that coming!  In any case, I still feel obligated to own up to my wins and losses of the past year.  So going through my 2020 Predictions:

What I got Right.

Reparations will be on the Democratic Platform

Called it!  Technically it’s the “study” of reparations, which is something that Democratic Congressmen vote on at the beginning of every session, but now that it’s in the platform, it will be part of the Democratic Party wish list forever.

There will be some sort of Brexit this year.

Again I was right, there was, “some kind” of Brexit.  At least it’s a start.

There will be a Supreme Court vacancy this year.

I thought either RBG would shrug off the mortal coil or Justice Thomas would see the handwriting on the wall and take a dive for the good of the Supreme Court.  Well he didn’t, which will work against us during the Harris-also-Biden administration.  He’s not young enough to be able to skip nearly a decade of Democratic Presidents.  In fact, he’s making the same mistake RPG did.  Despite the millions of atheist prayers, RPG left a gap in the Supreme Court that President Trump was only too happy to fill.

Republicans will retain control of the Senate.

Despite the blue wave predictions, the GOP maintained control of the Senate, with of course a big caveat of the runoff race in Georgia.  Well for the purposes of this year it still looks good for the Republicans so I’m comfortable calling that a win.

Democrats will retain control of the House.

I also got this right but surprisingly by a margin a bit thinner than I foresaw.  I expected the Democratic lead to remain about the same, with a few seats traded out here and there. Instead the Republicans made some real progress.  Thanks “Defund-the-Police” Democrats!

 

What I got Wrong.

Joe Biden will not be the Democratic Nominee.

Yep, I got this wrong. My reasoning was simply this:  As woke and identity politics conscious as the Democratic Party had gotten, why would they select on old white male with a history of troublesome racial statements?  Plus, I assumed that no way would Democrats want someone with declining mental faculties to go against Trump in the debates, not to mention govern the country.  But the hatred of Trump was so strong, they didn’t care they were voting in someone stretching the bounds of senility.

There will be an additional impeachment inquiry in the House of Representatives this year to consider new impeachment charges.

This one I got wrong, but by a hair.  Democrats were planning to do an “Impeachment 2.0” after Trump was acquitted, but COVID-19 got in the way and blew everything else out of the water.

There will be an independent never-Trump candidate in the race

My assumption was that Never Trump forces would be up to their old tricks, but I think the years have worn on them since 2016 when they promoted a couple of nimrod embarrassing characters to run against Trump.  Of course in 2016, they were expecting a 50 state blow out for Hillary.  I think this year, they finally began to admit they were Democrats all along and just went ahead and supported Biden.

So I got 5 out of 8 predictions: That’s a 62.5% success rate.  Or in other words a ‘D.’  In some schools, that’s passing and considering that it’s been 2020, where nothing was as predicted, I don’t feel I did too bad.

 

No, You Are NOT taking Your Country Back

The other day Rush Limbaugh was trending on twitter due to yet another deliberate misinterpretation of something he said on his show.  This time it was a remark taken out of context that we’re “trending toward secession.”  What he actually said was a bit more nuanced than twitter can handle:

“I see a lot of bloggers — I can’t think of names right now — a lot of bloggers have written extensively about how distant and separated and how much more separated our culture is becoming politically and that it can’t go on this way. There cannot be a peaceful coexistence of two completely different theories of life, theories of government, theories of how we manage our affairs. We can’t be in this dire a conflict without something giving somewhere along the way.

I know that there’s a sizable and growing sentiment for people who believe that that is where we’re headed whether we want to or not. Whether we want to go there or not. I myself haven’t made up my mind. I still haven’t given up the idea that we are the majority and that all we have to do is find a way to unite and win.”

So actually he said something close to the opposite of advocating for secession.  But secession aside, Rush is wrong on this. “We” meaning right leaning, generally conservative Americans with traditional ideas of American government and culture, are very much the minority.

I’ve been discussing this for years, that the country is in decline; not in the future but right now and it’s been going on for a long time.  At least in my view, there are two major reasons for this:

  1. Demography Is Destiny. Demography is one of the key topics of this blog, at least as it relates to the political decline of the right and the ascension of the left.  America altered its immigration policy in the 1960’s to really open up the country to the world, while at the same time, trashing the culture that pushed previous generations of immigrants to assimilate into  “Americans.”  The one-two punch of that is the addition of 50 to 60 million “Americans” who have little connection to historic America, it’s constitution, it’s hero’s, it’s tradition, it’s flag, or anything that helps define us as a people.  So now we’re not a people, we’re at best, consumers, and at worse, a rabble of grifters, trying to extract as much from a dying country as they can while there is still something worth taking.
  2. Education becomes Indoctrination. And, at the same time we invited these millions of new immigrants into the country, and stopped insisting they assimilate, we also stopped teaching civics in school, denying the children of immigrants even a brief education in to what it means to be an American.  But that’s not even the worst of it.  The left’s long march through the institutions, and particularly the educational ones, that begin in the 1960’s has resulted in near total subjugation of higher education to leftist talking points and political correctness.  Although no one is shocked by this, I never foresaw it being able to escape its academic confines into the larger culture.  I assumed that new goofy leftist graduates would encounter resistance to their nonsense on day one of their entry into corporate America.  That actually worked for years until the rise of Woke Capital.  Eventually, all of that indoctrination paid off, and now corporate America is every bit a tool of the left as the news media and Hollywood.

The combination of these two (and not just these two but these are the biggest) trends has resulted in an America that is increasingly less American. Boomers have a difficult time with this, which may be why Baby Boomers like Rush simply can’t accept what’s in front of their eyes, because what’s in front of their eyes goes against their entire lifetime of experience.

As the late paleo conservative author Lawrence Auster would often say, “It’s their country now.”  That’s been true for a while.  Considering Rush’s health, maybe it’s a blessing if he never figures this out.

 

Pay People to Get the Virus

In the annals of dumb ideas to give away money, this isn’t the worst idea I’ve heard, but it’s up there.  From the (you guessed it) New York Times:

Pay People to Get Vaccinated

What’s the best way to get the economy back on track after the Covid-19 recession? Simple: Achieve herd immunity. And what’s the best way to achieve herd immunity? Again, simple: Once a vaccine is approved, pay people to take it.

That bold proposal comes from Robert Litan, an economist at the Brookings Institution. Congress should enact it as quickly as possible.

 

You may be asking yourself, “Who wouldn’t take the vaccine for free?”  It seems like a no-brainer but…

 

In a recent NBC News/SurveyMonkey Weekly Tracking Poll, only 44 percent of Americans said they would get the vaccine. The rest said they wouldn’t or weren’t sure.

Given the track record of polls, I’m not likely to give this one much credence, however it’s worth remembering that then VP candidate Kamala Harris cast her own doubts on whether she would take it.

 

“If the public health professionals, if Dr. [Anthony] Fauci if the doctors tell us that we should take it, then I’ll be first in line to take it,” Harris said. “But if Donald Trump tells us that we should take it — then I’m not taking it.”

 

That’s a dumb comment from a public official.  So Trump just has to taunt Harris to take it, and to spite him she’ll refuse?  That’ll show him!

I think more likely that once the vaccines are available, there will be a mad scramble to get them, no financial incentive needed.  People are anxious to resume normal lives and achieving herd immunity is a vital step to doing that.  So paying people to get a vaccine is just a dumb idea unless you are absolutely looking to throw money out the door and are trying to find a method to do that.

What would be worth paying for would be for people to get the virus.  Now before you run away screaming, hear me out.

Based on what we know of the COVID-19 fatality rates by age, young people are at little to no risk from COVID-19.

 

So…it occurs to me if back in April, we had paid young people under 30 in good health and no pre-existing conditions (like obesity) to be infected with the virus we would probably have already achieved something close to herd immunity and could live normal lives while waiting for the vaccine to appear.  The volunteers would be well compensated to have few symptoms although for an unfortunate few, they would likely get flu like symptoms.  That’s no fun, but I’ve had the flu and didn’t get paid for it, so it might be worth a shot.  Since this is the population that has most resisted the lockdown restrictions, and were likely going to break it anyway, this would give the opportunity to make large swaths of that population immune, so they can stop risking others, like grandma at Thanksgiving.

Of course it’s too late for this policy at this late date in the pandemic.  The arrival of the Trump vaccines means that there is light at the end of the tunnel, but there will be other China viruses, and given the irrational hysteria demonstrated both by public professionals and the general populace, we may be looking at many more hysterical lockdowns in the years ahead.  Since we can’t cut our stupidity short on this, let’s at least use a tool to speed the through the painful process quicker.