Prediction Update; now with even more predictions!

I want a do-over!

In my 2020 Predictions post, one of the predictions was that President Trump would face a second impeachment.  Well, I counted that as a missed prediction since there was no second impeachment …in 2020, but almost immediately into the New Year, guess what?

We had a second impeachment.

Now technically, it didn’t happen within the 2020 calendar year, but it was so close, mid-January; how can this not be an accurate prediction?  And therefore I have declared it so!  My 2020 prediction score is now 6 out of 8 predictions, giving me a grade of 75%.  That’s a solid gentleman’s C, so I’ll take that.

So while I’m updating my predictions, I thought I would gift a few bonus predictions.  These are just off the top of my head but let’s see..

 

The Derek Chauvin trial begins this week.  Chauvin, is charged with killing the sainted George Floyd (PBUH).  Watching the video, I came to the same conclusion that the rest of the country did, Chauvin murdered Floyd.  But then the autopsy was released showing a fatal amount of fentanyl in his system, and I had to reconsider my priors. Chauvin is charged with second-degree unintentional murder, third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter charges.  I don’t know which charge is going to stick, but in spite of the autopsy results, I’m confidently predicting that Chauvin will be convicted on one of those three charges.  If you were on that jury, would you want to put you and your family’s life in danger by adhering strictly to the evidence?  Would you want to be responsible for setting off new rioting?  Chauvin is getting the shaft on this one.

In economic news, I think we are facing a future stock market crash and real estate market crash, within the next 18 months.  I do have a criteria that I use to determine this, which I’m keeping close to the vest for now, but handle your investments with this in mind.

Also a little far afield, but I’m predicting that the Republicans, as hopelessly messed up as they are, take back a majority in the House of Representatives in 2022.  I know it’s a little early for that, and if HR 1 passes, all bets are off, but right now it’s about the only national level place the GOP can win.

9 thoughts on “Prediction Update; now with even more predictions!

  1. You have a pretty good track record.

    FWIW, I can’t see Chauvin *not* being convicted of something. He’s charged with second-degree unintentional murder, third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter. I can’t see him getting out of all three. (Outlier case: look up Amadou Diallo, where it seemed as though the cops would certainly be convicted – but they weren’t. But that was 1999, in other words, last century – literally.)

    Do you think the stock market crash will be worse than March 2020?

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    • In an earlier age ( 10 years ago) the fentanyl amount would probably leave enough “reasonable doubt” that there would be little chance he would be convicted. Juries then would have still thought they were doing the “right thing” by following the law and acquitting him. Now however, a juror is putting his life and that of his or her family at risk in delivering a verdict that’s unacceptable to the waiting mob outside.

      I think the Trayvon Martin jury was probably the last big racial case that the jury thought they could make a decision based on the evidence, rather than mob threats. If that trial was going on in the current year, Zimmerman would have gotten life.

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  2. My heart agrees, my head says, “wait and see.” Do we have any other choice? Hope for the best, expect the worst.

    As far as the fentanyl level introducing that reasonable doubt – hold on there. You’re not in the jury room, you’re not weighing the totality of the evidence.

    The rioting and looting that happened in the wake of the incident, the 180 degree turn about gatherings – all of this embittered me, as well, but….

    If Chauvin truly is guilty, then so be it.

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    • “If Chauvin truly is guilty, then so be it.”

      I agree. I’m not an advocate of Chauvin. I had no problem assuming he was a murderer and guilty when I only had the videos to go by, and once I saw the autopsy report, I had no problem believing he might have a strong defense. I just think the days of a jury deliberating on the evidence in racially charged case like this one is over. If you are on the jury, you have to convict, unless of course you don’t have a family to protect.

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  3. “If Chauvin truly is guilty, then so be it.” Not well-phrased. I should have said, “If Chauvin truly is guilty of something, then so be it.”

    I’m not playing one upmanship here but I never jumped to the conclusion he was a murderer because I’ve been down that road too many times. I thought the cops in the Diallo case were guilty of “something” and they weren’t. When the facts came out, I saw what the jury concluded: a legit, tragic case of mistaken identity. Not murder, not even manslaughter.

    WRT Rodney King it took YEARS for the facts to come out, no thanks to the MSM. But they did & it taught me something. Do not jump to conclusions based on videos. (That goes for war zones as well.)

    “I just think the days of a jury deliberating on the evidence in racially charged case like this one is over.”

    Probably but… we’ll see.

    Liked by 1 person

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