Predictions for 2021

Democrats will take at least one of the run off Senate seats in play in Georgia.

 

China is going to make a move on the dollar this year.  I don’t when or how, but now that they have their guy in the White House, 2021 looks like the perfect time.

 

Google’s anti-Trust case gets settled or dismissed by servile Harris-but-also Biden Justice Dept

 

There will be another “stimulus” bill, with cash money for everyone as “Stimulus.”

 

Related to the stimulus bill, US higher education tries to wrangle a bail out, probably as part of the future stimulus bill.

 

There will still be some COVID restrictions up through the middle of 2021 regardless of the vaccination schedule.

 

A major amnesty bill will work its way through Congress, supported by the Harris-and-also Biden administration.

The Harris-but-also Biden Administration will try to get a tax increase bill signed by the end of the year, but won’t be able to get one through.

 

Most of these political predictions hinge on how the Georgia run off races go, so it could be a year of wildly successful prediction or utter failure, just like every year!

2020 Predictions Wrap Up

My Prediction mojo usually gets wobbly during Presidential election years and this year was no different.  Not to mention that 2020 turned out to be…2020.  I sure didn’t see that coming!  In any case, I still feel obligated to own up to my wins and losses of the past year.  So going through my 2020 Predictions:

What I got Right.

Reparations will be on the Democratic Platform

Called it!  Technically it’s the “study” of reparations, which is something that Democratic Congressmen vote on at the beginning of every session, but now that it’s in the platform, it will be part of the Democratic Party wish list forever.

There will be some sort of Brexit this year.

Again I was right, there was, “some kind” of Brexit.  At least it’s a start.

There will be a Supreme Court vacancy this year.

I thought either RBG would shrug off the mortal coil or Justice Thomas would see the handwriting on the wall and take a dive for the good of the Supreme Court.  Well he didn’t, which will work against us during the Harris-also-Biden administration.  He’s not young enough to be able to skip nearly a decade of Democratic Presidents.  In fact, he’s making the same mistake RPG did.  Despite the millions of atheist prayers, RPG left a gap in the Supreme Court that President Trump was only too happy to fill.

Republicans will retain control of the Senate.

Despite the blue wave predictions, the GOP maintained control of the Senate, with of course a big caveat of the runoff race in Georgia.  Well for the purposes of this year it still looks good for the Republicans so I’m comfortable calling that a win.

Democrats will retain control of the House.

I also got this right but surprisingly by a margin a bit thinner than I foresaw.  I expected the Democratic lead to remain about the same, with a few seats traded out here and there. Instead the Republicans made some real progress.  Thanks “Defund-the-Police” Democrats!

 

What I got Wrong.

Joe Biden will not be the Democratic Nominee.

Yep, I got this wrong. My reasoning was simply this:  As woke and identity politics conscious as the Democratic Party had gotten, why would they select on old white male with a history of troublesome racial statements?  Plus, I assumed that no way would Democrats want someone with declining mental faculties to go against Trump in the debates, not to mention govern the country.  But the hatred of Trump was so strong, they didn’t care they were voting in someone stretching the bounds of senility.

There will be an additional impeachment inquiry in the House of Representatives this year to consider new impeachment charges.

This one I got wrong, but by a hair.  Democrats were planning to do an “Impeachment 2.0” after Trump was acquitted, but COVID-19 got in the way and blew everything else out of the water.

There will be an independent never-Trump candidate in the race

My assumption was that Never Trump forces would be up to their old tricks, but I think the years have worn on them since 2016 when they promoted a couple of nimrod embarrassing characters to run against Trump.  Of course in 2016, they were expecting a 50 state blow out for Hillary.  I think this year, they finally began to admit they were Democrats all along and just went ahead and supported Biden.

So I got 5 out of 8 predictions: That’s a 62.5% success rate.  Or in other words a ‘D.’  In some schools, that’s passing and considering that it’s been 2020, where nothing was as predicted, I don’t feel I did too bad.

 

No, You Are NOT taking Your Country Back

The other day Rush Limbaugh was trending on twitter due to yet another deliberate misinterpretation of something he said on his show.  This time it was a remark taken out of context that we’re “trending toward secession.”  What he actually said was a bit more nuanced than twitter can handle:

“I see a lot of bloggers — I can’t think of names right now — a lot of bloggers have written extensively about how distant and separated and how much more separated our culture is becoming politically and that it can’t go on this way. There cannot be a peaceful coexistence of two completely different theories of life, theories of government, theories of how we manage our affairs. We can’t be in this dire a conflict without something giving somewhere along the way.

I know that there’s a sizable and growing sentiment for people who believe that that is where we’re headed whether we want to or not. Whether we want to go there or not. I myself haven’t made up my mind. I still haven’t given up the idea that we are the majority and that all we have to do is find a way to unite and win.”

So actually he said something close to the opposite of advocating for secession.  But secession aside, Rush is wrong on this. “We” meaning right leaning, generally conservative Americans with traditional ideas of American government and culture, are very much the minority.

I’ve been discussing this for years, that the country is in decline; not in the future but right now and it’s been going on for a long time.  At least in my view, there are two major reasons for this:

  1. Demography Is Destiny. Demography is one of the key topics of this blog, at least as it relates to the political decline of the right and the ascension of the left.  America altered its immigration policy in the 1960’s to really open up the country to the world, while at the same time, trashing the culture that pushed previous generations of immigrants to assimilate into  “Americans.”  The one-two punch of that is the addition of 50 to 60 million “Americans” who have little connection to historic America, it’s constitution, it’s hero’s, it’s tradition, it’s flag, or anything that helps define us as a people.  So now we’re not a people, we’re at best, consumers, and at worse, a rabble of grifters, trying to extract as much from a dying country as they can while there is still something worth taking.
  2. Education becomes Indoctrination. And, at the same time we invited these millions of new immigrants into the country, and stopped insisting they assimilate, we also stopped teaching civics in school, denying the children of immigrants even a brief education in to what it means to be an American.  But that’s not even the worst of it.  The left’s long march through the institutions, and particularly the educational ones, that begin in the 1960’s has resulted in near total subjugation of higher education to leftist talking points and political correctness.  Although no one is shocked by this, I never foresaw it being able to escape its academic confines into the larger culture.  I assumed that new goofy leftist graduates would encounter resistance to their nonsense on day one of their entry into corporate America.  That actually worked for years until the rise of Woke Capital.  Eventually, all of that indoctrination paid off, and now corporate America is every bit a tool of the left as the news media and Hollywood.

The combination of these two (and not just these two but these are the biggest) trends has resulted in an America that is increasingly less American. Boomers have a difficult time with this, which may be why Baby Boomers like Rush simply can’t accept what’s in front of their eyes, because what’s in front of their eyes goes against their entire lifetime of experience.

As the late paleo conservative author Lawrence Auster would often say, “It’s their country now.”  That’s been true for a while.  Considering Rush’s health, maybe it’s a blessing if he never figures this out.

 

Pay People to Get the Virus

In the annals of dumb ideas to give away money, this isn’t the worst idea I’ve heard, but it’s up there.  From the (you guessed it) New York Times:

Pay People to Get Vaccinated

What’s the best way to get the economy back on track after the Covid-19 recession? Simple: Achieve herd immunity. And what’s the best way to achieve herd immunity? Again, simple: Once a vaccine is approved, pay people to take it.

That bold proposal comes from Robert Litan, an economist at the Brookings Institution. Congress should enact it as quickly as possible.

 

You may be asking yourself, “Who wouldn’t take the vaccine for free?”  It seems like a no-brainer but…

 

In a recent NBC News/SurveyMonkey Weekly Tracking Poll, only 44 percent of Americans said they would get the vaccine. The rest said they wouldn’t or weren’t sure.

Given the track record of polls, I’m not likely to give this one much credence, however it’s worth remembering that then VP candidate Kamala Harris cast her own doubts on whether she would take it.

 

“If the public health professionals, if Dr. [Anthony] Fauci if the doctors tell us that we should take it, then I’ll be first in line to take it,” Harris said. “But if Donald Trump tells us that we should take it — then I’m not taking it.”

 

That’s a dumb comment from a public official.  So Trump just has to taunt Harris to take it, and to spite him she’ll refuse?  That’ll show him!

I think more likely that once the vaccines are available, there will be a mad scramble to get them, no financial incentive needed.  People are anxious to resume normal lives and achieving herd immunity is a vital step to doing that.  So paying people to get a vaccine is just a dumb idea unless you are absolutely looking to throw money out the door and are trying to find a method to do that.

What would be worth paying for would be for people to get the virus.  Now before you run away screaming, hear me out.

Based on what we know of the COVID-19 fatality rates by age, young people are at little to no risk from COVID-19.

 

So…it occurs to me if back in April, we had paid young people under 30 in good health and no pre-existing conditions (like obesity) to be infected with the virus we would probably have already achieved something close to herd immunity and could live normal lives while waiting for the vaccine to appear.  The volunteers would be well compensated to have few symptoms although for an unfortunate few, they would likely get flu like symptoms.  That’s no fun, but I’ve had the flu and didn’t get paid for it, so it might be worth a shot.  Since this is the population that has most resisted the lockdown restrictions, and were likely going to break it anyway, this would give the opportunity to make large swaths of that population immune, so they can stop risking others, like grandma at Thanksgiving.

Of course it’s too late for this policy at this late date in the pandemic.  The arrival of the Trump vaccines means that there is light at the end of the tunnel, but there will be other China viruses, and given the irrational hysteria demonstrated both by public professionals and the general populace, we may be looking at many more hysterical lockdowns in the years ahead.  Since we can’t cut our stupidity short on this, let’s at least use a tool to speed the through the painful process quicker.

 

 

 

End of an (Trump) Era

As wacky as 2020 has been, in many respects, the election hasn’t drifted too far from how I assumed it would go nearly a year ago. I had said that Trump had a chance, but it was a small one.  Then as we got closer and closer to the election, “events dear boy, events;” began to make their presence felt.  Still, Trump might have been able to handle the COVID and BLM issues all things being equal, but as I said last month:

A normal vs woke election would be good news for Trump, but there is still another wrinkle out there.  In 2016, we knew who the President was by the wee hours of the morning after Election Day.  This year, it seems likely that we may not know for days or weeks.  In 2016, the Democrats just did not believe they could lose; all of their smartest pundits and talking heads told them so, and they acted, or didn’t act, accordingly.  This year, they are well aware of the possibility and have pulled out all the stops to make sure that doesn’t happen.  And by all the stops, I mean election fraud and cheating.  The table is being set for that in state after state.

… The combination of open ended receiving of late mail in ballots and allowing ballot harvesting probably spells doom for Trump’s chances in States that allow that.  Although Trump could possibly win Michigan [or other close swing States] on Election Day, it’s unlikely he would still be the winner ten days later.

So I figured if Trump didn’t win on Tuesday night, it was pretty much over.  So this has just been a big “waiting for the other shoe to drop” exercise for me.  But now that the other shoe has dropped, it’s important to pick up the pieces and see where we are at.

  1.  No Blue Wave.   Frankly I didn’t know they were even expecting one.  I had cut out MSNBC, the Pravda by the Potomac, quite a while ago so I had no idea they were fully expecting to sweep the Senate too.  But I’ve read countless lefty (actually MSM) articles scratching their heads trying to figure out why Mitch McConnell wasn’t going to be beheaded in January by Chuck Schumer.  As I remember from the Obama win in 2008, victory only makes them angrier.
  2. The end finally of the Never Trump movement?  With Trump gone, can the hundreds Lincoln Project never Trumpers go away now?  Given that they supported a Democrat over propping up a “conservative” alternative this year, as they did in 2016, they have nowhere to go but hat in hand to a Biden administration.  So…they’re Democrats.  Their departure will be good for the Republican Party.
  3. Trump’s court challenges.  Trump will likely keep fighting as long as the courts allow, but the trail will be cold and there won’t be much in the way of relief as there never seems to be in voter fraud issues.  You can’t undo the fact that ballots were not segregated, as ordered by the Courts in Philadelphia.  The evidence is now safely buried in the Meadowlands.  However it’s possible that a combination of Trump court challenges and investigations by the DoJ Civil Rights Division could open wider investigations.  That will be a welcome change, at least until the Biden Administration shuts them down.
  4. Vengeance is mine.  As I said earlier, victory only makes them angrier.  The Democrats may not get to behead Cocaine Mitch, but they are for sure planning to behead someone.  Settling scores seems to be on the mind of the Progressive Politburo.

 

This is, to say the least, an undemocratic attitude.  However it’s très French Revolution.  Given how insane the left has gotten over the past 4 years, will they step back from the brink, or continue to emulate the worst characteristics of 20th Century Communist regimes?  Stay tuned.

October Surprises

It’s that time of the year again; the time when every possible food or drink sprouts a pumpkin spice equivalent and giant bags of discount candy clog the aisles of most American grocery and convenience stores.  Of course every four years it’s also the season of the October surprise, the media hit job designed by the Democrats and the media to take out whoever the Republican candidate is.

In 2016 it was famously the Hollywood Access tape, with its “grab them by the pussy” quote that the media was sure would destroy Trump and somehow…didn’t.  2012 had the more reliable release of the audio from Romney’s 47% quote which severely damaged his campaign.

This year is more challenging since Trump has been dealing with the equivalent of an October surprise every few weeks since he’s been President.  The media has never tired of releasing crazy stories based on “anonymous sources” that almost inevitably crap out and are never confirmable.  Most recently The Atlantic hit job, Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’. Anonymous sources that were later contradicted by at least 10 confirmed named sources. Trump has ridden all of that out.

So if you are part of the DNC-media establishment, what could possibly take down Trump?

  •  More sexual harassment accusations.  There could actually be Democratic groups preparing the latest batch of “victims” to go live in some massive media presentation right now.  The history of these types of accusations against Trump doesn’t have a very good success rate, but pile on, in conjunction with other October surprises, could be helpful.
  • Trump says the N-word.  There have actually been multiple accusations of this in the past, but a fresh one by someone who actually sounds credible (not Michael Cohen MSNBC!) could put Trump on the defensive for a news cycle, but ultimately wouldn’t be a lasting hit, unless of course there is video of it.

And my favorite:

  • The Southern District of New York US Attorney’s Office announces, or has leaked, a sealed indictment for Donald Trump, his family, or his business.  The indictment doesn’t have to be for a real crime and could go away after the election.  The important thing is that the story of an indictment is out there, right before the election.

There may be other types of October surprises in the wings that I’ve not thought of.  However Trump isn’t a normal politician and his idea of damage control is to go on the counter attack.  That’s a tactic that’s worked for him in the past, but one would think the media has learned something over the past four years and has a real zinger prepared to take out Trump in the final days of the election.

Or maybe not.

Election Foreboding

We’re down to the final election laps, coming in for a finish, and I’m filled with apprehensive thoughts about what’s to come.  Last year I wrote a piece in which I posited that although Trump has a chance to win again in 2020, it was a thin one, as the demographics of the electorate have gotten more unfavorable for Republicans four years later (as they do every four years) and all things being equal, Trump couldn’t win. His only chance was a major increase in turn out of his voters.  Turn out, in a country in which only about half the voting age population votes is crucial. 

However things never stay “equal” as 2020 brought us not only Covid, but “The Summer of George,” a social justice holocaust brought about by the death of George Floyd.  The rioting and arson got out of control almost exclusively as a result of Democratic governors, mayors, and city councils, which not only refused to do anything to stop the mayhem, but took the side of rioters. This provided us with the possibility, which I had discussed a few months ago, that the election may boil down to an election of normal people vs the Woke crazies.

A normal vs woke election would be good news for Trump, but there is still another wrinkle out there.  In 2016, we knew who the President was by the wee hours of the morning after Election Day.  This year, it seems likely that we may not know for days or weeks.  In 2016, the Democrats just did not believe they could lose; all of their smartest pundits and talking heads told them so, and they acted, or didn’t act, accordingly.  This year, they are well aware of the possibility and have pulled out all the stops to make sure that doesn’t happen.  And by all the stops, I mean election fraud and cheating.  The table is being set for that in state after state.  As I mentioned a few weeks ago, a Michigan judge overturned not only the law that required that mail in ballots arrive at the polls no later than Election Day, but also the law against ballot harvesting.  The combination of open ended receiving of late mail in ballots and allowing ballot harvesting probably spells doom for Trump’s chances in States that allow that.  Although Trump could possibly win Michigan on Election Day, it’s unlikely he would still be the winner ten days later.

The Democrats have already more or less promised Civil War if Biden loses, what about Trump Supporters if the election is lost and it appears it was lost due to voter fraud?  Republicans have traditionally swallowed hard and accepted the loss “for the good of the country.”  Most famously during the Presidential election of 1960 of Kennedy vs Nixon, Bob Dornan’s Congressional election, and Al Franken’s Senate race.  But that was then.  Democrats are used to Republicans rolling over for election fraud, and maybe they still think that would happen this year, but Trump is unlikely to accept his own defeat if there are actual, credible allegations of voter fraud in key states.

So I’m worried.

Why Trump should fill the Supreme Court Position

As if 2020 needed any more murder hornets to plague us this year…

WASHINGTON (AP) — Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a towering women’s rights champion who became the court’s second female justice, died Friday at her home in Washington. She was 87.  Ginsburg died of complications from metastatic pancreatic cancer, the court said.

Her death just over six weeks before Election Day…

Uh Oh.

Naturally the left went insane (again) almost immediately.

And between threatening burning the country down and civil war, it does bring up the totally legitimate question of whether the President should either hold off and leave the decision for the next President or just go ahead and pull the trigger now and try to ram another Supreme Court nominee through.

While mulling that over, I came across this…

Judge orders Michigan to accept mail-in ballots for 2 weeks after Election Day

Sept. 18 (UPI) — A Michigan judge on Friday ordered elections officials to accept mail-in ballots for two weeks after the 2020 election as long as they’re postmarked before Election Day.

The ruling substantially increases the amount of time ballots can be accepted in the state. Under existing law, officials count only mail-in ballots received by 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Get that? The judge overturned existing law.

But wait, there’s more!

In addition to extending the deadline for receiving mail-in ballots, Stephens also said a third party can submit a mail-in or absentee ballot for a voter — a practice described by critics as ballot harvesting.

As the judge ruled:

This court enjoins MCL 168.932(f) in this election from 5:00 p.m. Friday October 30, 2020 until the close of the polls on November 3, 2020, in so far as it limits the class of persons who may render an absent voter assistance. As a result, a voter casting an absent voter ballot in the November 2020 general election may select any individual the voter chooses to render assistance in returning an absent voter ballot, but only for the limited time period when assistance from the clerk is not required, i.e., between 5:01 p.m. on the Friday before the election and the close of polls on Election Day.

So in other words, the judge also overturned the law, making ballot harvesting legal.

So by having a partisan judge overturned the existing law in order to open the door wide open to electoral fraud means that it would be almost impossible for Trump to win Michigan, no matter how many votes Trump gets legitimately. The ballot harvesters will just turn in more ballots.

So the lessons I take from this is that Democratic judges ignore the law and constitution to get their way, so the right should do what we can to get a judge who respects the constitution on the court. The left intends to cheat to steal the election. We should recognize that and act accordingly.

TV Show Pitches: Poul Anderson Edition

In my continuing effort to pitch ideas for TV shows that I would like to watch, allow me to introduce science fiction writer Poul Anderson.  Anderson wrote science fiction from the 1940’s up to his death in 2001 and is considered one of the greats.  He would easily make most of the top ten best twentieth century science fiction writer listicles, and his work is extensive enough that it can supply an entire network or streaming service with shows.  Of course, the problem is that science fiction and other genre shows are expensive because of the effects and sets involved, and have a natural ceiling for an audience unless it’s the rare crossover hit that appeals to people that normally wouldn’t watch science fiction or genre type shows.

So that narrows the list considerably.

So let’s start with a TV show idea based on, as Anderson describes as, “one of the most popular things I’ve ever done,” The High Crusade.

Working Title:  Space KnightsKnights in Space!  Err…still working on this since the source material is called The High Crusade and crusades are problematic so…

Genre:  Science Fiction, Romance

Hot Take: Game of Thrones vs Aliens

In 1345 an alien ship lands near an English village while doing a scouting mission to colonize the planet.  Completely underestimating the threat of the low technology locals, a local Lord manages to capture the vessel and intends to use it to win the 100 Years war, and then roll back the Saracen gains in the Middle East with a new Crusade using the spaceship.  Ambitious right?  So he loads up the entire village on the ship to assist in the effort, only to be tricked by the sole alien survivor who sets the navigation to take the ship to the nearest alien colony world.

At this point that’s where I’d say the fun begins. Sir Roger, Baron de Tourneville, has to figure out how to take on aliens with advanced technology when they have only the barest idea of how things work, and have to bluff their way in dealing with other potential alien allies. Although it’s been many years since I read the book I remember it as being a lot of fun and this is a good moment for television shows that have characters drinking mead and wearing plated armor.  The story rolls out like an Arthurian legend lite and should have a lot of crossover appeal.

Working Title:  Flandry of Terra

Genre: Science Fiction, Spy Thriller, Space Opera

Hot Take:  James Bond meets Star Trek

In many ways this is a James Bond in space type of show, although the Dominic Flandry character predates Bond.  Flandry, a dashing intelligence agent in a declining 31st Century Terran Empire, shoots and seduces his way across the galaxy in service to the crown.  Unlike Bond however, Flandry does it with the full knowledge that the empire he serves is doomed, and is on an inevitable path of decline and crash, taking civilization with it.

Outside of the typical science fiction fans, it’s difficult to gauge how much of an audience there is for this type of show.  And it would be expensive.  As a writer, Poul Anderson was probably one of the best world builders in the business, but designing worlds isn’t like going from Hong Kong to Monaco.  It would require the type of money a network or streaming service is unlikely to invest in unless there is the type of angel investor that Jeff Bezos was for The Expanse.  Bezo’s liked the show so when it was cancelled on the Syfy network, he swooped in and bought it for Amazon Prime.  Any chance Bezos is a Flandry fan…?

Role Playing Election Chaos

I wrote a few weeks ago about the war gaming of the election ran by the Transition Integrity Project, an ironically named group whose real purpose seems to be simply to get Joe Biden elected, but behind the camouflage of a nonpartisan status  and a serious sounding name.  In the scenario that I mentioned, a replay of 2016 where Trump has an Electoral College victory but a popular vote loss, Biden wouldn’t concede and of course, chaos ensues.

In a follow up story in The Washington Post, TIG founder Rosa Brooks wrote an article fleshing out the wargaming experience with this take away, “A landslide for Joe Biden resulted in a relatively orderly transfer of power. Every other scenario we looked at involved street-level violence and political crisis. “

It’s been said before, but the summary is:  “Nice little country you got there.  It’d be a shame if something happened to it.”

I don’t hold the war gaming as any kind of oracle.  These are leftists playing make believe.  But it does show the intention of the left; they are simply not going to accept a loss this November, votes or no votes.  They would rather burn the country and it’s institutions to the ground rather than let Trump serve another term.

Once they pull that card, it’s over.  American political institutions won’t magically regrow.  We’ll lurch from crisis to crisis until some tyrant ends the lurching.

On the plus side… OK I’ve got nothing.