Prediction Update; now with even more predictions!

I want a do-over!

In my 2020 Predictions post, one of the predictions was that President Trump would face a second impeachment.  Well, I counted that as a missed prediction since there was no second impeachment …in 2020, but almost immediately into the New Year, guess what?

We had a second impeachment.

Now technically, it didn’t happen within the 2020 calendar year, but it was so close, mid-January; how can this not be an accurate prediction?  And therefore I have declared it so!  My 2020 prediction score is now 6 out of 8 predictions, giving me a grade of 75%.  That’s a solid gentleman’s C, so I’ll take that.

So while I’m updating my predictions, I thought I would gift a few bonus predictions.  These are just off the top of my head but let’s see..

 

The Derek Chauvin trial begins this week.  Chauvin, is charged with killing the sainted George Floyd (PBUH).  Watching the video, I came to the same conclusion that the rest of the country did, Chauvin murdered Floyd.  But then the autopsy was released showing a fatal amount of fentanyl in his system, and I had to reconsider my priors. Chauvin is charged with second-degree unintentional murder, third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter charges.  I don’t know which charge is going to stick, but in spite of the autopsy results, I’m confidently predicting that Chauvin will be convicted on one of those three charges.  If you were on that jury, would you want to put you and your family’s life in danger by adhering strictly to the evidence?  Would you want to be responsible for setting off new rioting?  Chauvin is getting the shaft on this one.

In economic news, I think we are facing a future stock market crash and real estate market crash, within the next 18 months.  I do have a criteria that I use to determine this, which I’m keeping close to the vest for now, but handle your investments with this in mind.

Also a little far afield, but I’m predicting that the Republicans, as hopelessly messed up as they are, take back a majority in the House of Representatives in 2022.  I know it’s a little early for that, and if HR 1 passes, all bets are off, but right now it’s about the only national level place the GOP can win.

Rioting for Me, But not for Thee

For the first time in years, the media is outraged at a riot.  Specifically the “Capitol Hill Riot” in which Trump supporters rushed the capital building breaking into the floor and offices.

So who had in their bingo card Trump Supporting Vikings attack US Capitol?

Not to make too much light of it since 5 people died and scores were injured, and it should go without saying that I oppose this rioting and think the perpetrators should be caught and charged.  But that’s par for the course for me, I’m a law and order type of guy.  What’s new is that the news media and progressives in general have suddenly become law in order types themselves…at least in this one instance.

The hypocrisy has been fairly hilarious for me as the media has rushed to cover up prominent progressive’s previous praise of rioting, arson, and violence.  Of course I’m not the only one who noticed the irony and twitter is replete with examples:

I had a little fun at one of my online hangouts and asked some progressive types to square that circle on rioting.  As it turns out, they couldn’t.  I wasn’t simply trolling, I really wanted to know the thought process of opposing this riot, but being not merely tolerant but supportive of rioting that went on all summer resulting in scores of injuries and deaths, and cost upwards of 2 billion dollars in damages.  And of course history tells us that effects of urban rioting last for years; Detroit still hasn’t recovered from it’s 1960’s race riots.

Ah but the “thought process” boiled down to this:  George Floyd was brutally murdered by racist cops so it’s nothing like privileged white racists attacking the Capitol.  And also there was no rioting; it was only “peaceful protest.”

Huh?

It’s why the left never acknowledges its own hypocrisy.  They are genuinely blind to it.  It’s not a matter of “pics or it didn’t happen,

…its pics and it still didn’t happen.

This of course is beyond merely scoring points in an internet argument; it’s an inability to have even the same language to describe an event.  I’ve no doubt that Ali Veshi, standing in front of a burning building, really did think it was “mostly peaceful” protesting.

It definitely changes the perspective on MSN reporting. As the Babylon Bee humorously addresses:

 

But seriously folks…This has chilling implications for our politics going forward, no common language, no common worldview, and one side has all the societal institutions on their side.

Election Foreboding

We’re down to the final election laps, coming in for a finish, and I’m filled with apprehensive thoughts about what’s to come.  Last year I wrote a piece in which I posited that although Trump has a chance to win again in 2020, it was a thin one, as the demographics of the electorate have gotten more unfavorable for Republicans four years later (as they do every four years) and all things being equal, Trump couldn’t win. His only chance was a major increase in turn out of his voters.  Turn out, in a country in which only about half the voting age population votes is crucial. 

However things never stay “equal” as 2020 brought us not only Covid, but “The Summer of George,” a social justice holocaust brought about by the death of George Floyd.  The rioting and arson got out of control almost exclusively as a result of Democratic governors, mayors, and city councils, which not only refused to do anything to stop the mayhem, but took the side of rioters. This provided us with the possibility, which I had discussed a few months ago, that the election may boil down to an election of normal people vs the Woke crazies.

A normal vs woke election would be good news for Trump, but there is still another wrinkle out there.  In 2016, we knew who the President was by the wee hours of the morning after Election Day.  This year, it seems likely that we may not know for days or weeks.  In 2016, the Democrats just did not believe they could lose; all of their smartest pundits and talking heads told them so, and they acted, or didn’t act, accordingly.  This year, they are well aware of the possibility and have pulled out all the stops to make sure that doesn’t happen.  And by all the stops, I mean election fraud and cheating.  The table is being set for that in state after state.  As I mentioned a few weeks ago, a Michigan judge overturned not only the law that required that mail in ballots arrive at the polls no later than Election Day, but also the law against ballot harvesting.  The combination of open ended receiving of late mail in ballots and allowing ballot harvesting probably spells doom for Trump’s chances in States that allow that.  Although Trump could possibly win Michigan on Election Day, it’s unlikely he would still be the winner ten days later.

The Democrats have already more or less promised Civil War if Biden loses, what about Trump Supporters if the election is lost and it appears it was lost due to voter fraud?  Republicans have traditionally swallowed hard and accepted the loss “for the good of the country.”  Most famously during the Presidential election of 1960 of Kennedy vs Nixon, Bob Dornan’s Congressional election, and Al Franken’s Senate race.  But that was then.  Democrats are used to Republicans rolling over for election fraud, and maybe they still think that would happen this year, but Trump is unlikely to accept his own defeat if there are actual, credible allegations of voter fraud in key states.

So I’m worried.

George Floyd…Not Murdered?

I saw a post at the Powerline blog that really caught my eye.  It through into question the entire idea that George Floyd had been murdered by Officer Derek Chauvin, the entire raison d’etre of this summer’s rioting and civil unrest.

Floyd’s case became internationally famous because of cell phone video that showed him slowly becoming unconscious while a police officer knelt on his neck. Surely he was asphyxiated! That conclusion seemed inescapable, especially since, while lying on the street with officers restraining him, Floyd complained of being unable to breathe. “I can’t breathe” became a Black Lives Matter battle cry.

But video that came out later showed that Floyd had been complaining of inability to breathe when he was standing up and walking around, long before he was on the street. And it emerged that the toxicology report associated with his autopsy found that he had at least double the dose of fentanyl in his blood that is normally considered lethal, along with other drugs. And shortness of breath is notoriously a symptom of fentanyl poisoning.

That he was high on fentanyl wasn’t a new aspect of the story; that came out when the initial autopsy report was released.  The new part was that he had a fatal dose of fentanyl in his system and that his lungs were filled with fluid consistent with fentanyl overdose.

In other words, he died from an overdose, not from whatever Derek Chauvin did to him.

And of course the prosecutors sat on this information all summer, while their own city and many others burned over a lie.  I guess I would say that’s par for the course.

As for me, I accepted the narrative that Floyd was murdered by Chauvin.  That’s what the video looked like, and I didn’t have any reason to question it until now.  In fact I even argued with a commenter “Curle” in a post discussing that very issue here.  I was wrong, and Curle was much closer to right than I was.

In the meantime none of this matters.  The match has already been lit so burn baby burn.

Normal vs Woke II: Electric Boogaloo

If it hasn’t already been obvious to you that CNN is beyond parody, it should be now.

Fiery But Mostly Peaceful

At this point, even the most distracted business traveler staring numbly at CNN in the passenger gate at the airport must realize how absurd their coverage is.  I mean, if even CNN dimbulb Don Lemon is starting to get it, it’s obvious to everyone

“The rioting has to stop,” Lemon said. “Chris, as you know and I know, it’s showing up in the polling. It’s showing up in focus groups. It is the only thing — it is the only thing right now that is sticking.”

Showing up indeed as some polling from Minnesota, which has undergone almost three months of riots after the death of George Floyd, is finally making an impact on the election.

Hillary Clinton took Minnesota in 2016 and in spite of previous Trump campaign efforts to push it in the red column for 2020, wasn’t making much headway.  But now look, in July, Biden led in polling by 13 points.  But the week ending in August 18th has the campaign at a virtual tie.

Minnesota is still a mostly blue state, and it could go for the Democrats anyway, but nothing about either Trump or Biden has changed in the past month, this is all riot related.  Riots that, should have been put down immediately rather than being indulged by woke state and local officials seeking to make common cause with BLM and Antifa rioters.

But normal people don’t like their cities and communities turned into war zones and being burned to the ground.  As I wrote about in June:

“It’s possible that the political re-alignment the country has been going through that began with Trump could veer off in unexpected ways.  We’ve mostly been looking at the 2020 election as elite vs deplorable,  managerial class vs blue collar workers, nationalists vs globalists, even the comments page vs the editorial board.  But this year it could spin around to normal people vs the Woke. “

If Don Lemon is aware of the threat this is to Democratic electoral prospects, than smart Democrats have probably been aware of this danger for a couple of months.  But so far the Democratic Party seems to be at the mercy of the mobs. If Trump wins in November, it may be on the backs of Democratic mayors, governors, and city councils which facilitated the destruction of their own communities.

Wokeism is insanity.  I’ll be anxious to see the polling next week from Wisconsin.

 

A Nation Divided between Normal and Woke

Last August, I commented on a New York Times article that opined that Trump’s chance to win re-election was slim, simply due to demographic changes that are leading to a larger and larger nonwhite electorate that has little connection to anything that the GOP has traditionally stood for.  Of course, demography isn’t the only factor in an election, but it’s a pretty big one, and for political scientists has been a reliable guide, at least for those who’ve dared pick up the 10 foot pole to poke at it.

But it’s not the only thing obviously, and 2020 has already revealed it to be such a dumpster fire that who knows what could happen?  Look how quickly the Coronavirus was forgotten to move on to the next hysteria, race.

The current, post George Floyd hysterical moment, like the post Dylann Roof era, which lead to the banning of The Dukes of Hazzard from the airwaves, has taken on a crazed life of its own, as multiple numbers of business people and celebrities found themselves cancelled, for issues having nothing to do with George Floyd. However let’s face it, Fawlty Towers was asking for it.

Simply, wokeism, is insanity.  Or more specifically, it’s like a cross between a mental illness and a religion.  The constant struggle sessions over being “more woke than thou” leading to upping the woke ante more and more is what accounts for George Floyd’s death leading to actor Hartley Sawyer’s firing from The Flash; it’s just a big ball of hysteria rolling downhill picking up more and more victims in it’s wake.

So now, George Floyd has led to “CHAZ” an Antifa secession of a few blocks of Seattle, whose leader may find that he’s been canceled over homophobic tweets

It’s ridiculous, and getting more so.  I wrote about the Defund the Police movement last week, and despite several days of various liberal articles trying to smooth it over by saying, no, defunding the police really means police reform, no; the activists are still insisting that defund the police means….defund the police.

And that has what to do with the election?

Most people liberal or not, are just not cool with that. A recent ABC poll showed that 64% oppose defunding the police.  The idea that this is a winner with suburban moms, the group that Democrats thought they had grabbed back in 2018, is absurd.  To be fair, Biden has demurred on the “defund the police” idea for now, but how long can the handlers who operate the Biden puppet resist the pull of the activists?

But forget suburban moms for a moment.  Deep in the heart of woke country even some of our tech elites are getting sick of it.  LinkedIn recently had a Townhall on race which normally would have gone the way these things normally go when held in the open; Black Lives Matter, fight racism, ect…and so on.  But this time there was an option for anonymous comments.  As The Daily Beast reports:

“We’ll spend most of our time together in open discussion, so please consider bringing questions or experiences you’d like to share,” read the invitation email to staff.

LinkedIn employees followed those instructions precisely. The results were a disaster.

Throughout the meeting, which was conducted by videochat and featured a sidebar where employees could leave comments, several anonymous staffers shared opinions echoing the detractors and skeptics of the Black Lives Matter movement. Several of these commenters criticized LinkedIn’s position on diversity hiring, equating such practices with racism against white people.

“As a non-minority, all this talk makes me feel like I am supposed to feel guilty of my skin color. I feel like I should let someone less qualified fill my position. Is that ok? It appears that I am a prisoner of my birth,” one commenter wrote. “This is not what Martin Luther King Jr. would have wanted for anyone.”

“I believe giving any racial group privilege over others in a zero sum game would not get any support by others. Any thoughts on hurting others while giving privileges with the rosy name called diversity?” read another employee comment.

“George’s killers need to be tried according to law. But how can hiring more minorities into manager roles and C-suite positions address cop racism? I thought hiring at LinkedIn is based on merit alone.”

That’s not what we usually hear from Silicon Valley, but on the other hand, we don’t usually get to hear anonymous comments either.

I’ve wondered for years when we would finally hit Peak Woke, the point when wokism is so ridiculous it collapses in on itself and is devoured by common sense forces.  It hasn’t happened yet, but there hasn’t been a real pushback to it either. But if even Silicon Valley is starting to show dissent…

I’m not predicting a public push back to this.  The risk is too great.  People can lose their jobs or even face death threats.  But once in the voting booth, it may be a different story.  It’s possible that the political re-alignment the country has been going through that began with Trump could veer off in unexpected ways.  We’ve mostly been looking at the 2020 election as elite vs deplorable,  managerial class vs blue collar workers, nationalists vs globalists, even the comments page vs the editorial board.  But this year it could spin around to normal people vs the Woke.

This of course could benefit Trump, but he has some issues of his own.  He’s not exactly been the avatar of normalcy as President.  If Trump, simply by manner, could look and act normal for a few months, while those on the Democratic side slide further and further off to crazy land, he could persuade a lot of normally Democratic voters who aren’t crazy to side, however unwillingly, with Trump.  That’s a big ask, but on the other hand, I’m sure Trump wants to win.

And when Trump is asked what he thinks about Black Lives Matter, he better have an answer.

“Defund the Police!”

Trying to parse the policy preferences of a mob is difficult at best. “End Racism,” or “Equality Now” tell me nothing about how to achieve that.  During the civil rights era, there were marches to end specific practices or support specific legislation.  This?  Who knows…

Well wait, there actually is one policy suggestion I’ve seen in the many images and videos of these protest/riots:

I think it goes without saying that defunding the police is, in a wheelbarrow of stupid ideas, one of the stupidest.  Even during the Obama era, during the Ferguson and Baltimore riots, there were no calls to do that.  But luckily, Democrat and leftist politicians are too canny to do anything so dumb…

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, City Officials Cutting $100 Million-$150 Million From LAPD Budget, Funds To Be Reinvested In Communities Of Color

“We will not be increasing out police budget,” said the mayor. That allocation is pegged at $1.8 billion in the mayor’s previously proposed budget.

Garcetti spoke of “reinvesting in black communities and communities of color.”

The mayor proceeded to announce $250 million in cuts to the proposed budget and to reallocate those dollars to communities of color, “so we can invest in jobs, in education and healing.” L.A. Police Commission President Eileen Decker then announced that $100 million-$150 million of those cuts would come from the police department budget.

L.A. City Council President Nury Martinez made it official Wednesday by introducing a motion to cut LAPD funding, “as we reset our priorities in the wake of the murder of #GeorgeFloyd. This is just one small step. We cannot talk about change, we have to be about change,” Martinez tweeted.

Well that will certainly be some change.

Of course that isn’t nearly good enough.

The amount of police spending in L.A. has long been a source of frustration for activists. This year, Black Lives Matter-Los Angeles teamed up with other grassroots organizations to survey Angelenos about their budget priorities and draft their People’s Budget.

Under their alternative spending plan for the coming year, police would receive only 5.7% of the city’s general fund — a reduction of nearly 90% compared with the mayor’s budget.

Well that sounds interesting.

Naturally this lead to some interesting twitter commentary.

Of course this led to some amusing comments from the right.

And an actual suggestion.

Frankly I’m with Byron York on this one.  I would love to see how this experiment plays out in some big blue cities.

And if they don’t defund their police, they’re racist.

Rush’s Conversation with The Breakfast Club was a Waste of Time

In what I would call a surprise move, Rush Limbaugh informed his audience today that he had pretaped a conversation with the popular Radio Show, The Breakfast Club. Of course the killing of George Floyd in the annals of popular outrage over police killings of unarmed Black men is an unusual one in that unlike most others, there is only one side.  This isn’t a Michael Brown situation, in which the details of the killing were disagreed with.  With Floyd, everyone knows what happened, no one is arguing about the details, no one is arguing that Floyd asked for it, and everyone agrees that it was horrible and deserves justice.

So naturally the country had the worst rioting in years.

What to make of a situation in which the country is united, yet also tearing itself apart?  Given the odd unity of the country on George Floyd, and Rush’s own disgust with the crime as expressed on his show last week, he took the initiative to reach out to the show with the largest Black radio audience to…what?  Seek common ground?  Honestly I don’t know what he hoped to accomplish but it did make for fascinating radio.  The full transcript is here, but I do have a few comments on some of the points that were gone over.

First a general observation; The Breakfast Club maintained a low level of hostility towards Rush throughout the interview while Rush clearly was trying to reach out with a “come let us reason together” type of attitude.  However there seemed to be no reciprocation of that.  Just a hat tip for negotiators, the person who reaches out puts themselves in a position of weakness.  Here is a good example:

DJ ENVY: You talk about peacefully protest, right? And you were very opinionated about Colin Kaepernick when he was peacefully protesting, right? And now people are saying, “Oh, they’re not peacefully protesting.” This is the same thing Colin Kaepernick was kneeling for that the world was so upset about and the world said he’s taking it too far and he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. This is exactly the reason why he was kneeling and protesting…

RUSH: Look, I – (crosstalk)

DJ ENVY: And looked at us like, yeah, I’m doing it and what?

RUSH: Guys, I’m trying to tell you, I’m all with you, I’m a thousand percent with you on this. This is why I wanted to talk to you because I know that there are — you know, we all have preconceptions that we live under and biases that we live under, and I wanted to reach out to you guys specifically, you were the ones that I was told to speak to, that this is intolerable. Now — but — (crosstalk)

I have to admit, Rush didn’t come out looking good in this exchange, particularly with the easy bait of Kaepernick dangling before him.  Anyone who had actually listened to Kaepernick knew that his “taking a knee” was about rejection of the country, not any particular list of social justice grievances.  He said it himself, “I am not going to stand up to show pride in a flag for a country that oppresses black people and people of color…”  For Kaepernick, it was always about America (or Amerikkka as he might spell it).

The other, and in my opinion more troubling issue was the total lack of similar vocabulary.

CHARLAMAGNE THA GOD: I have a question for you. I want to know. How are you gonna use your privilege as a white male to combat this prejudice. You got a direct line to Donald Trump. (crosstalk)

RUSH: No, wait a minute, I don’t buy into the notion of white privilege. See, I think that’s a liberal —

CHARLAMAGNE THA GOD: You’re being —

RUSH: That’s a liberal — (crosstalk)

CHARLAMAGNE THA GOD: You’re being delusional.

RUSH: — political construct right along the lines of political correctness. It’s designed to intimidate and get people to shut up and admit they’re guilty of doing things they haven’t done. I don’t have any white privilege — (crosstalk)

CHARLAMAGNE THA GOD: Do you know what white privilege is? White privilege is that what happened to George Floyd would not have happened to a white man.

RUSH: If what happened to George Floyd had happened to a white man we probably wouldn’t have even heard about it.

CHARLAMAGNE THA GOD: Huh?

DJ ENVY: We definitely would have heard about it. You definitely —

RUSH: You think so? If George Floyd — if George — if George — (crosstalk)

DJ ENVY: — be killed by –(crosstalk)

ANGELA YEE: Yeah, I would like to — (crosstalk)

RUSH: I don’t think — if George Floyd — (crosstalk)

ANGELA YEE: Rush, there’s a lot of instances where this does happen and we don’t hear about it. There’s a lot of times that there’s no video that exists and then people are — police officers lie and they say this is what happened, just like we’ve seen it happen so many different times where fortunately there was video. There’s a lot of cases that won’t make it.

RUSH: I think – (crosstalk)

ANGELA YEE: That don’t go viral. (crosstalk)

CHARLAMAGNE THA GOD: Never hear about it, that never make it to TV, that never make it to social media because there is no phones, there is — (crosstalk)

RUSH: I think you misunderstood what I said, guys. I said if George Floyd were white, we wouldn’t have heard of this. And if the same thing had happened to him, we wouldn’t have heard about it, it wouldn’t be — you know, we — (crosstalk)

It’s clear The Breakfast Club cannot conceive of a situation in which an unarmed white person is killed by the police and it go unremarked, “White privilege is that what happened to George Floyd would not have happened to a white man.” 

But what does actual data reveal?

The Washington Post has a database of police shootings and it reveals data that goes against the narrative.  For example:

In 2019, 9 unarmed black people were killed by the police.

In 2019, 19 unarmed white people were killed by the police

Does anyone know any of their names?  Yet I’m sure if you presented those figures to Charlemagne Tha God, he simply wouldn’t believe you, so his entire definition of White Privilege, based on this radio interview, is false.

Even if Rush had confronted The Breakfast Club on the actual data, I don’t think it would matter.  In fact, I can’t remember the last time real data or facts have mattered, but it definitely doesn’t matter if you don’t even bother to bring it up.   Rush needn’t have bothered.  There was never going to be any dialogue.  The Breakfast Club would have been happy to accept Rush’s surrender, but they weren’t interested in having a conversation.