Closing out the Election and bringing in the new Administration

A few days after Election Day, I jotted down a few of my thoughts on what just happened. So I have just a few final thoughts on the election and the next administration.

There is no equivalent to how Republicans handled election defeat this year compared to Democrats in 2016.  In 2016 Democrats did this:

And then, after “literally shaking,” cried foul and proceeded to entertain the most ludicrous conspiracy theories of Russians stealing the election that would dominate nearly the entire 4 years of Trump’s presidency.  Trump supporters in 2020 dispensed with the hysterics and immediately dove right into a Chavez-Dominion-foreign server’s conspiracy.  That’s not to say that the idea of election fraud is a baseless conspiracy; it isn’t.  I absolutely believe that there was massive cheating.  That belief isn’t based on a silly hope, but on raw data that can easily be checked at the Here is the Evidence website, as well as multiple other available sources on the massive statistical anomalies.

What I don’t know if it was enough to turn the tide of the election.  The Powerline Blog put it well:

“… major questions remain unanswered. In several key swing states, there were midnight dumps of 100,000 or more votes, virtually all of which were for Joe Biden, something that can’t normally happen. Those dumps may have made the difference in the election. I have seen no attempt by any Democrat to explain or justify them. Maybe I’ve missed it, and maybe they somehow reflected actual ballots cast, but the burden of proof is on those who seek to justify such anomalies.

Even greater doubts about the election arise from the deliberately loose procedures that governed voting. Something like 69 million mail-in votes were cast, and until two months ago, everyone agreed that mail-in voting is highly susceptible to fraud. But the laxity in 2020 went far beyond the risks inherent in mail-in votes. I put it this way: I don’t know whether the Democrats stole the 2020 election, but I do know that they tried hard to steal it.”

Of course, I think everyone knew ahead of time there would be massive election fraud in this election.  I sure knew and President Trump, with his constant remarks about the election being rigged knew as well.   But if you know in advance there are going to be massive hijinks (I nice way to say felonies) what do you do about it?  I frankly assumed that Trump was preparing for that eventuality and there would be marshals and Justice Department lawyers on site at the known bad actor cities.  I was wrong about that.  Instead, Trump’s real plan turned out to be first, lose the election, and then second, go to court.

There have been few plans as dumb as that one.

So after it turned out Sydney Powell didn’t actually have a Kraken to release, I gave up.  Biden would be the next President.

Joe Biden is a great metaphor for a declining America vis-à-vis a rising China to replace us.  A doddering, mentally declining senior, preoccupied with minutiae like transgender bathrooms and identity politics headcounts rather than the serious business of being a great power, he symbolizes everything that the United States is right now.  Not that he knows it of course.  He’s a pre-Boomer.  Born in 1942, all he’s known is an America is a great power and doesn’t think anything he does will make it weaker because I doubt he believes America can be weak. So opening the borders and granting millions amnesty isn’t a fatal blow to the country, it’s just being neighborly.  We can handle them!  Reversing Trump’s trade policies on China?  Rather than a death blow to American manufacturing, Biden thinks he’s leading our good friends the Chinese into Democracy.  And as a bonus, they pay well too!

At least to connected people like the Biden’s.

For those hoping for a return to normality, they are going to be cruelly disappointed.  2021 is already starting to look like some dystopian movie.

The government and the media has already picked out 74 million Americans as the next Emmanuel Goldsteins.  Whether they lose interest in their jihad is up in the air, but I’m hopeful that our new government-media-woke corporate rulers will forget about how much they hate us and stay busy congratulating themselves on their multiple 5 year plans.  Hey it could happen!

But of course, I’m an optimist.

 

2020 Predictions Wrap Up

My Prediction mojo usually gets wobbly during Presidential election years and this year was no different.  Not to mention that 2020 turned out to be…2020.  I sure didn’t see that coming!  In any case, I still feel obligated to own up to my wins and losses of the past year.  So going through my 2020 Predictions:

What I got Right.

Reparations will be on the Democratic Platform

Called it!  Technically it’s the “study” of reparations, which is something that Democratic Congressmen vote on at the beginning of every session, but now that it’s in the platform, it will be part of the Democratic Party wish list forever.

There will be some sort of Brexit this year.

Again I was right, there was, “some kind” of Brexit.  At least it’s a start.

There will be a Supreme Court vacancy this year.

I thought either RBG would shrug off the mortal coil or Justice Thomas would see the handwriting on the wall and take a dive for the good of the Supreme Court.  Well he didn’t, which will work against us during the Harris-also-Biden administration.  He’s not young enough to be able to skip nearly a decade of Democratic Presidents.  In fact, he’s making the same mistake RPG did.  Despite the millions of atheist prayers, RPG left a gap in the Supreme Court that President Trump was only too happy to fill.

Republicans will retain control of the Senate.

Despite the blue wave predictions, the GOP maintained control of the Senate, with of course a big caveat of the runoff race in Georgia.  Well for the purposes of this year it still looks good for the Republicans so I’m comfortable calling that a win.

Democrats will retain control of the House.

I also got this right but surprisingly by a margin a bit thinner than I foresaw.  I expected the Democratic lead to remain about the same, with a few seats traded out here and there. Instead the Republicans made some real progress.  Thanks “Defund-the-Police” Democrats!

 

What I got Wrong.

Joe Biden will not be the Democratic Nominee.

Yep, I got this wrong. My reasoning was simply this:  As woke and identity politics conscious as the Democratic Party had gotten, why would they select on old white male with a history of troublesome racial statements?  Plus, I assumed that no way would Democrats want someone with declining mental faculties to go against Trump in the debates, not to mention govern the country.  But the hatred of Trump was so strong, they didn’t care they were voting in someone stretching the bounds of senility.

There will be an additional impeachment inquiry in the House of Representatives this year to consider new impeachment charges.

This one I got wrong, but by a hair.  Democrats were planning to do an “Impeachment 2.0” after Trump was acquitted, but COVID-19 got in the way and blew everything else out of the water.

There will be an independent never-Trump candidate in the race

My assumption was that Never Trump forces would be up to their old tricks, but I think the years have worn on them since 2016 when they promoted a couple of nimrod embarrassing characters to run against Trump.  Of course in 2016, they were expecting a 50 state blow out for Hillary.  I think this year, they finally began to admit they were Democrats all along and just went ahead and supported Biden.

So I got 5 out of 8 predictions: That’s a 62.5% success rate.  Or in other words a ‘D.’  In some schools, that’s passing and considering that it’s been 2020, where nothing was as predicted, I don’t feel I did too bad.

 

Predictions for 2020

I had a pretty good prediction run for 2019 so hopefully I can continue that; however it’s an election year so everything should be extra crazy.  So with that in mind, I present my 2020 predictions.

Reparations will be on the Democratic Platform

After several of the Democratic Presidential candidates came out in support of reparations, it’s hard to imagine that this year reparations wouldn’t finally make the platform somehow.

There will be an independent never-Trump candidate in the race

I don’t know how well-funded he or she would be, but for the purpose of sapping GOP votes from Trump to throw the election to the Democrats, there will be an effort to promote someone to give the several hundred never-Trumpers some voting alternative.

Joe Biden will not be the Democratic Nominee.

I’ve been saying it for months, in spite of his rather constant lead near the top of the polls, but the issue is that ultimately, it’s not the gaffes, but the fact that the gaffes will look more and more like dementia rather than “that’s just Joe.”  I think the Democrats would prefer a crazed socialist to an obviously mentally failing “moderate.”

There will be an additional impeachment inquiry in the House of Representatives this year to consider new impeachment charges.

This of course, is the action of a crazed opposition, but that’s where we are, so I’m confident the House will consider new charges for impeachment.

There will be a Supreme Court vacancy this year.

Even though the Supreme Court prediction burned me last year, I guess I’m a moth driven to the flame on this, so I’m going to say that either due to retirement or death or disablement, there will be an opening.

There will be some sort of Brexit this year.

Democrats will retain control of the House.

Republicans will retain control of the Senate.

 

 

You may notice that I didn’t make a prediction on who wins the Presidency.  In 2016 I held off until August…and got it wrong.  My prediction on what makes the difference in the race is that this will be a turn out election; whoever gets their people to the polls in high enough numbers will win, and as of now, Democrats tend to dominate the ground game.

 

Also, a not quite prediction:

I wouldn’t really say this is a prediction, both because it’s outside the one year window of this post and because at this point it’s more guess than prediction, but this could move up to a full blown prediction in the future (but that’s just a prediction).

Notre Dame, when rebuilt, will have some sort of Islamic imagery included.

 

My Pre-Primary Democratic Nominee Prediction

If there is one thing I’ve been sure of, it’s that the conventional wisdom of the past few months that Joe Biden was the locked in choice for the Democratic nominee for President, was wrong.  At no time, did I ever think that Biden had a chance. Not because he was a gaffe machine; that’s something that plagued him his entire career, but that he was too old and it would show on the campaign trail, and Democratic Primary voters just wouldn’t think he would be up to the job (the job of beating Trump, not being President).

However for the longest time I wasn’t sure which of the many Democratic candidates was going to rise to the top spot, but now I think I’ve gotten an idea of who could win the nomination, and that candidate is Senator Elizabeth Warren.  Yeah, it’s a surprise to me too.  Going back to 2012 I had pretty much discounted Warren because of her “Fauxcahontas” scandal, one that has provided many hilarious updates since then. But actually running in a Presidential race provides a great opportunity to separate the Presidential wheat from the chaff.

Four years ago if someone had asked me who was likely to get the 2020 Democratic nomination I would have guessed…Hillary?  For her second term?  But Corey Booker would have been my second choice.  As Mayor of Newark he seemed a dynamic Obama Part two, but since becoming Senator, he’s revealed the truth of the Peter Principle; Booker is not up to his current position and looks a good deal weaker and less consequential then he did as a mayor.  Apparently Democratic donors and polled Democratic primary voters agree.  He doesn’t seem to be going anywhere.

Kamala Harris who started out the gate strong, also seems to be faltering.  I would have given her much greater odds earlier in the race.  The Democratic primary voter seems to want a socialist, just not a white male one (sorry Bernie).  In 2016, Bernie was the only socialist in the race, now, when there are plenty of socialists available of every color and sex…err I mean gender, voters can be pickier.  CNN’s Don Lemon disputed that Harris could even be called an African American.  That’s actually a fair point since Harris, whose mother is Indian and father is mixed, is about as black as George Zimmerman.  However Harris identifies herself as African American.  Why she doesn’t identify as Indian American I don’t know, since that would be more accurate, but I suppose there is more electoral cache in that than in identifying as Indian.  That didn’t help Warren.

However Warren has managed to get through three debates without saying something stupid, or at least stupid for a Democratic debate.  That may be a new candidate record.  On the other hand, Biden can’t get to a commercial without saying something stupid in every debate.  The only thing keeping his candidacy afloat is the idea that he can beat Trump, but the more he turns into Grampa Simpson, the less likely that seems, and it gives the opportunity for other candidates to rise.

And, as this NBC/WSJ poll shows, Warren is catching up with Biden.   At this rate, Warren could catch Biden in a month or so, and then even talking heads will have to take notice.  Fair to say, some of them have.  I’ve noticed the pro Biden Morning Joe starting to turn to highly complementary things to say about Warren.  It looks to me that they are preparing their MSNBC audience for a new front runner. Biden won’t fade out quickly however.  He has a lot of money behind him, and I for one wouldn’t mind hearing more rambling stories about Biden fighting “Corn Pop” with a chain.

 

What Biden’s Decision Not to Run Tells Me

Last week’s Democratic Debate on CNN clarified something for me.  Prior to the debate, I was wondering if any of the other (“other” meaning besides Hillary) candidates were really serious about the race, or if they had other motives for running, such as raising their political profiles, increasing speaking fees, or selling books. The “tell” would be if they actually took on Hillary.  The path to the Democratic nomination leads directly through Hillary.  If a candidate took her on directly, then that was a clue that he was serious about running for President.Biden

So what happened?  They’re not serious.  Even Jim Webb, whose face looks stuck on serious, wasn’t really serious.  And Bernie Sanders, who had been nipping at her heels throughout the race?  Again; not serious.  “The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails!”  That comment basically let Hillary off the hook for her scandals and corruption.  So if Bernie was never serious about running for President, why was he running?  One possibility was that he was aiming for an inspired impersonation on Saturday Night Live.  If so, mission accomplished!

But besides Larry David’s dead on Bernie Sanders performance, there could be another reason.  Knowing Hillary was the de facto front runner, he could have wanted to be the person to push the agenda to the left, in case Hillary was tempted to slip back into the familiar Clinton territory of triangulating centrist-land.  Again, mission accomplished.  By the time we get to the Democratic convention, Bernie’s 18 Trillion dollar price tag will just be the down payment.

So that brings us today’s announcement that Vice President Joe Biden will not run for President.  There is no doubt the public discussion of will he or won’t he revolved around the very real grief he and his family are suffering through due to the loss of his son.  If grief is the only standard, it’s unlikely that Biden would ever be ready to run again.  He will age out of his window of opportunity long before he may feel he has the strength to do more than nurse his pain.  But I don’t think that is the only consideration.

Like all of the other so called “candidates,” Biden’s path to the nomination would lie right through Hillary.  However Biden is a part of the administration that is actually investigating Hillary’s server, her emails, and whether any laws were broken or security jeopardized   Although the FBI and its investigation on whether charges are warranted is independent in theory, in this administration, nothing under the executive branch seems to be exempt from politics.  So regardless of what the investigation reveals the actual decision to prosecute would rest with Obama.

Would he?

There are some reasons to think he might.  The Obama-Clinton Feud is well known, but the consequences to the party could be severe.  So I think the dangling of the carrot the past couple of weeks was Biden waiting for Obama to make up his mind on if he would go after Hillary or not.

So my guess is not.