2017 Prediction Wrap Up

Well this year was not one of my better performances.  After 2016, I guess I got a bit cocky, so I’ll have to lower my expectations, but I did win a few and lose a few, but 2017 was not my year in predictive punditry. Still, let’s look at the results:

The Winners

At least 3 terrorist attacks in Western Europe resulting in double digit casualties. This should have been a no brainer but actually it’s a win on a technicality.  There were multiple terrorist attacks all year but it took until the Manchester Attack on May 22nd before we had a double digit casualty attack, 22 killed and 59 injured.  This was followed by the Barcelona Truck attack on August 17th, with 13 killed and more than 100 injured.  The technicality comes in on the fact that I didn’t specify causalities as fatalities. So although in Western Europe there were only two attacks with fatalities in the double digits, there were several other attacks; the March bridge attack in London with 5 deaths and 29 injuries, the April truck attack in Stockholm with 5 deaths and 14 injuries, the other London bridge attack in June with 8 deaths and 48 injuries, and a September train attack in London with no deaths but 29 injuries. So Western Europe did have a full year of terrorism, but many of the attacks didn’t quite push up the fatalities in a way that the Islamic State might have hoped.

The FED will raise interest rates by at least three-quarters of a point. Janice Yellen lived…up?  Or is it down; to my expectations and more and raised interest rates.

Articles of Impeachment against Donald Trump will be introduced in the House. I’m definitely claiming this one as a win.  Congressman Steve Cohen introduced articles of impeachment last month.  My only surprise was what took so long.

The Losers

Angela Merkel wins the Nobel Peace Prize. A funny idea, but no, she didn’t get it.

Most of the Obama Care (ACA) legislation will be repealed. I was really surprised by this.  I figured that in spite of the ongoing Republican Civil War if there was one thing I thought the Republican Party was united on was the idea of getting rid of Obamacare, however it turns out that delivering defeats to President Trump was a more important goal of the Republican leadership.

There will be at least one assassination attempt against Donald Trump this year. Thankfully wrong on this one.  That’s not to say there have not been assassination threats against Trump; I see them almost every week online, but an actual public attempt to take him out hasn’t happened this year.  The last one that I know of happened in Nevada in 2016.

Marine Le Pen will be elected President of France. This definitely falls within the “close but no cigar” category. Emmanuel Macron beat Le Pen, in an election that turned out be just as weird as the 2016 US election was.

So getting 3 out of 7 isn’t great.  I failed this year’s challenge. That’s OK though, I can learn from my mistakes, and still beat never trump neo conservative Bill Kristol’s wretched predictive record!

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Predictions for 2017

Given how well I did with my 2016 Predictions I thought I would give it another go and see what I thought would be likely for 2017.

At least 3 terrorist attacks in Western Europe resulting in double digit casualties.  Why?  Because Muslims will continue to be Muslim.

Angela Merkel wins the Nobel Peace Prize.  Because that is exactly the kind of retarded thing the Nobel Prize Committee would do.

Most of the ObamaCare (ACA) legislation will be repealed.  I say most because there are a few items that may be either too politically popular (keeping kids on their parent’s plan until 26) or were already part of Republican replacement plans (pre-existing conditions).

The FED will raise interest rates by at least three-quarters of a point.  The FED just recently raised the short term interest rates by a quarter of a point, the first increase in 2016.  This strikes me as a totally political decision, since Janet Yellen was a target of Trump and I’ve no doubt she’ll raise rates at least another ¾ of a point in 2017 in hopes of stalling the economy to punish Trump for his impertinence.

Articles of Impeachment against Donald Trump will be introduced in the House.  Why?  Because the Democrats are already talking about that now.  Waiting until Trump is President is merely a formality.

There will be at least one assassination attempt against Donald Trump this year. When the media has been promoting the “literally Hitler” meme for the past year, would it be surprising that some earnest liberals take the Dead Zone option and try to take Greg Stillson out?

Marine Le Pen will be elected President of France.  Although Michel Houellebecq’s novel Submission predicted an establishment deal to elect a Muslim political party winning the Presidency of France, in real life the current populist uprising may hit the French shores quicker than you can say The Camp of the Saints. Brexit, Trump, and the constant Islamic terrorist attacks may cause a public revulsion where people will just say, “enough.”  In some ways, that would be a bigger deal than Trump winning the Presidency.  The French establishment has been fighting populist nationalism a lot longer than the American GOP-Democratic-Media alliance.  So if that goes, dominos will fall all over Europe with dismal prospects for the EU.  That would slide in nicely with another prediction of mine, that the EU will be mostly undone by 2020.

Not really a prediction, more of a certainty, but every foreign policy decision made by the Trump White House will be called either idiotic or ignorant.

Random Thoughts about the Paris Attacks

An email acquaintance of mine of the left leaning persuasion emailed me a question as to my thoughts on the recent attacks on Paris.  I’m pretty sure he wasn’t asking for a news report but impressions.  My first impression was, “here we go again.”  Another terrorist attack that in the aftermath we’ll try to find a way to excuse; by denying what it really is.  For example:

No Zooey, it’s not senseless tragedy.  It was no more a senseless tragedy than Pearl Harbor was.  This was a planned attack with purpose behind it.

Liberal Man child Ezra Klein threw his two cents in:

Liberals consider Klein an intellectual so I assume that most of them nodded at his prepubescent wisdom, but to me, what does he think the new ISIS expeditionary force is?  At least one of the suspects was a refugee.  No doubt there will be more of that in the future.

President Obama sounded no less dumb than his acolyte. “This is an attack on all of humanity and the universal values we share.”  No Mr. President, it’s not an attack on all humanity; just the infidel part.  And we don’t have any universal values to share.  We have Western Judeo-Christian values, and then there is everyone else, who has totally different values.

If anyone had the right to be self righteous, it was French President Francois Hollande and appropriately enough, he said all the right things: “[France] will be merciless towards the barbarians of the Islamic State group.”  Although I’ve no doubt the French military will find a few targets they can bomb, does anyone really think they are actually declaring war on the Islamic State?  That’s like him saying Je suis Charle.  He was no more Charlie than the Iranian Supreme Leader.  If you don’t believe me, ask Marine Le Pen, who is on trial for comparing Muslims to the Nazi Occupation.  After the recent attacks in Paris, I would call that a reasonable comparison.

So does this change anything in Europe?  My sense is that it won’t.  It’s too late for that.  After the Charle Hebdo massacre, there was outrage, world leaders marched together (except ours for obvious reasons), and then the world returned to, as columnist Mark Steyn describes as, “no Islam to see here.” I suspect this will have no effect on slowing down the tidal wave of refugees into Europe.  After all, ISIS has to replenish the ranks of its expeditionary force.