The Morning Joe Prediction Challenge

Amidst the usual freak-outs and hair pulling about Trump, North Korea, Trump, Mueller, Trump, the RUSSIANS, and of course Trump, Joe Scarborough had time to be fumed at Trump for yet another reason: This time it’s personal.  Joe’s good personal friend Mark Sanford lost his House seat primary to pro-Trumper Katie Arrington.  Whether or not Trump’s tweet calling Sanford “unhelpful” and saying he was better off in Argentina had anything to do with it is hard to say, but it sure wasn’t helpful to Sanford.  This of course led to another amusing unhinged rant by Joe.  Check this out!

There is a lot to unpack in this ten minute segment, too much in fact!  But what I wanted to focus on starts at around the 8:30 mark, when Joe declares his prediction, that there will be a “massive Democratic wave this fall.”

You heard it here first folks (because few people other than me watch the show).

I’ve also made a prediction, noted here, that there will NOT be a “massive Democratic wave” and that the GOP will keep control of the House. So who is the better political analyst, Joe Scarborough or me? Time will tell, but if I’m right, Joe should fly me to New York and feed me, and if I’m wrong, I’ll write a mea culpa on my inaccurate prediction.

Gentlemen, place your bets.

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2017 Prediction Wrap Up

Well this year was not one of my better performances.  After 2016, I guess I got a bit cocky, so I’ll have to lower my expectations, but I did win a few and lose a few, but 2017 was not my year in predictive punditry. Still, let’s look at the results:

The Winners

At least 3 terrorist attacks in Western Europe resulting in double digit casualties. This should have been a no brainer but actually it’s a win on a technicality.  There were multiple terrorist attacks all year but it took until the Manchester Attack on May 22nd before we had a double digit casualty attack, 22 killed and 59 injured.  This was followed by the Barcelona Truck attack on August 17th, with 13 killed and more than 100 injured.  The technicality comes in on the fact that I didn’t specify causalities as fatalities. So although in Western Europe there were only two attacks with fatalities in the double digits, there were several other attacks; the March bridge attack in London with 5 deaths and 29 injuries, the April truck attack in Stockholm with 5 deaths and 14 injuries, the other London bridge attack in June with 8 deaths and 48 injuries, and a September train attack in London with no deaths but 29 injuries. So Western Europe did have a full year of terrorism, but many of the attacks didn’t quite push up the fatalities in a way that the Islamic State might have hoped.

The FED will raise interest rates by at least three-quarters of a point. Janice Yellen lived…up?  Or is it down; to my expectations and more and raised interest rates.

Articles of Impeachment against Donald Trump will be introduced in the House. I’m definitely claiming this one as a win.  Congressman Steve Cohen introduced articles of impeachment last month.  My only surprise was what took so long.

The Losers

Angela Merkel wins the Nobel Peace Prize. A funny idea, but no, she didn’t get it.

Most of the Obama Care (ACA) legislation will be repealed. I was really surprised by this.  I figured that in spite of the ongoing Republican Civil War if there was one thing I thought the Republican Party was united on was the idea of getting rid of Obamacare, however it turns out that delivering defeats to President Trump was a more important goal of the Republican leadership.

There will be at least one assassination attempt against Donald Trump this year. Thankfully wrong on this one.  That’s not to say there have not been assassination threats against Trump; I see them almost every week online, but an actual public attempt to take him out hasn’t happened this year.  The last one that I know of happened in Nevada in 2016.

Marine Le Pen will be elected President of France. This definitely falls within the “close but no cigar” category. Emmanuel Macron beat Le Pen, in an election that turned out be just as weird as the 2016 US election was.

So getting 3 out of 7 isn’t great.  I failed this year’s challenge. That’s OK though, I can learn from my mistakes, and still beat never trump neo conservative Bill Kristol’s wretched predictive record!