With as fitting a post for Labor Day as I could imagine, a few years ago, I wrote a post about automation called, The Shrinking Need for a Workforce, based on what, in 2014, seemed to be the trend in automation; low skilled jobs, with some high skilled jobs, could be at risk, putting millions out of work. What to do? Well almost a decade later we can update those predictions a bit and for once, it doesn’t look all bad.
The rise of ChatGPT, seemed to spring out of nowhere, but actually, chat programs on customer service websites have been ubiquitous for years. Various tech companies have been working on various chatbots, but they’ve had…problems. Both the Microsoft and Meta versions had to be shut down and terminated after becoming Nazi racists. Of all the potential risks I saw with AI, becoming a racist Nazi computer program was not on my Skynet Bingo card.
ChatGPT and its siblings are already demonstrating that they can do some pretty amazing things, even in these admittedly early stages. Remember when journalists used to mock unemployed miners and other working class types whose jobs were being strip-mined overseas to “learn to code?” And remember how someone would get banned if they told unemployed journalists the same? Now, AI can code, better and quicker than humans. It can write term papers, proposals, news articles, and loads of other, what was formerly considered human only work products.
Nowhere did I see what turned into the biggest surprise (for me anyway); AI’s dalliance into the creative arts. Something that I didn’t even know existed 8 months ago but is now common online are AI art generators. Just give a text description of what you want to see and voila! There it is! One of my few memories of a college Art Appreciation class was the definition of art being something man-made. A painting of a landscape is art, the actual landscape isn’t. But now what does art mean when it’s created by a non-human intelligence? Is it still art?
Well, that’s something that others will have to figure out, but surely in any practical sense, it is art. But that impacts a lot more career fields than automation or macros on an office bound workforce, this effects the very people who always though they would be immune from the advancements of AI; our creative class. Think how a field like marketing would be affected if the suits could simply tell an AI program what they want to promote their, oh I don’t know, beer, let’s say. Not only could the AI generate the copy for a commercial, but could (eventually) generate the commercial, with smiling artificial actors all guzzling the AI generated beers.
No humans required.
And as for TV and movie production…imagine someday in the not-so-distant future in which I sit down on the couch after a long day of retirement and tell my TV/Computer, “Mr. Computer, I would like to see a 90-minute movie starting John Wayne as a World War II GI fighting lizard like aliens as these aliens decide to invade the earth on D-Day.”
OK not my best movie pitch but let’s see what the AI comes up with.
As a consumer, this sounds great. However, if you are in the TV & Movie business…
TV and film writers are fighting to save their jobs from AI. They won’t be the last
By any standard, John August is a successful screenwriter. He’s written such films as “Big Fish,” “Charlie’s Angels” and “Go.” But even he is concerned about the impact AI could have on his work.
A powerful new crop of AI tools, trained on vast troves of data online, can now generate essays, song lyrics and other written work in response to user prompts. While there are clearly limits for how well AI tools can produce compelling creative stories, these tools are only getting more advanced, putting writers like August on guard.
“On guard” indeed.
One can easily see why Hollywood actors and writers are worried they could be next up on the “learn to code” chopping block. So, between the creative classes, the professional classes, and the administrative classes all looking at a future shrinking job market, what’s left?
The trades. In fact, any job that requires both manual labor and problem-solving behavior seems relatively safe for the time being. That could be a carpenter, plumber, electrician, A/C guy…any of the still skilled and semi-skilled labor jobs that no chat bot, no matter how clever, is going to be able to replace. Our future could very well resemble our past, with the percentage of jobs belonging to working-class, blue-collar type jobs could be similar to what they were a century ago.
How that could alter society as a whole is anyone’s guess, but with a workforce looking more like the turn of the last century, that could have a lot of downstream societal effects. With a dearth of office type cubical jobs, could women reevaluate career or family conundrum that’s impacted the idea of feminism since the fifties? It’s one thing to view a future of girl boss singledom when there are plenty of professional and administrative jobs, but it’s quite another when the choices are more practically working on an oil rig or construction. Although I don’t think the 2040’s will be a copy of the 1940’s, there could be more similarities than to our own age.