In 2016 I wrote a post called, “Florida is Glowing Blue on the Electoral Map.” The gist being that thanks to demographic trends, Florida was moving from a toss up to blue state. Whatever trends I thought I observed were either wrong or outdated since Donald Trump won Florida in 2016 and 2020. From voting for Obama twice to voting for Trump twice? Something is going on. Of course, there are always caveats. As I observed at the time:
“But I think Florida has had a couple of things going for it that made that less obvious. First, an unusually large retired population. Old people vote at a higher percentage and they tend to skew Republican. This has been a buffer against the 40% minority population of Florida, which otherwise should have thrown Florida into a permanent blue zone years ago.
Of course, that 40% isn’t as clear cut. Tomasky is right that younger Cubans lean strongly Democratic and Puerto Ricans lean about 80% Democratic, however election time in Florida usually leads to some interesting radio ads, in which a Spanish surnamed Republican may find himself opposing a Spanish surnamed Democrat for the same local seat. Although I’m a firm believer that demography is destiny, there are some local gator sized hiccups in that.”
I was aware even years ago that the normal flow of retirees to Florida did its part keep Red Florida afloat, but recent events have contributed to a new (to me) phenomenon, ideological sorting. As The Wall Street Journal pointed out:
Thus many conservatives have vamoosed to states where Republicans stand a chance. Between 2019 and 2021, nearly 400,000 people on net moved to Florida from other states, according to Census Bureau data. During the same period, masses of people left Illinois (235,000), New York (556,000) and California (610,000).
New York’s population flight notably exceeded Ms. Hochul’s margin of victory. It’s impossible to know how New York emigres would have voted in the election, but their reason for leaving was surely more complicated than the state’s unpleasant winter. That’s undoubtedly also true for the 1.4 million others who have fled the state since 2010.
Democrat-governed states are becoming more liberal as conservatives leave for Republican-governed states, which in turn are becoming more conservative. As recently as 2020, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans in Florida. Yet Republican voter registration has increased by 540,000 since 2018, while Democratic registration has fallen by 9,000. Most of the GOP growth and Democratic decline occurred during the pandemic.
So disgruntled Republicans fleeing blue states for red ones, Florida in particular, made a difference, but the a lot of that seems to be based on one person, Ron DeSantis. DeSantis became governor with a rather weak hand. He barely won is first run for governor by “32,000 votes, less than half a percentage point.” And that was against squad level leftist, Andrew Gillum, who was under Federal investigation at the time. However, his reelection bid left him winning by an astounding 20 points. So, what happened? DeSantis has been a success as a governor. Most importantly by recognizing earlier than most that the hysterical Covid mitigation that the country…and the world was going through just didn’t match the available science and wasn’t likely to be effective.
I’m sure a lot of political people had similar thoughts but given the hysteria of times, didn’t act on it. DeSantis showed a lot of political courage in not just recognizing the clash between science and public policy he actually did something about it and began dismantling some of the more outlandish policies, such as school closings. This turned Florida into a Red Oasis during DeSantis’ first term; more reasonable Covid policies and fighting back against some of the crazed leftist social policies, like opposing preteens being steeped in gender ideology.
Of course, sapping red votes from blue states besides making Florida redder, also makes those other states bluer. And with the Covid hysteria over (for now) and the housing market cooling off, that sorting hat trend may be cooling off. But nothing succeeds like success and maybe DeSantis can score a few more second term victories to make Florida (yes Florida!) an example of good governance.
So from trending blue State to capital of Red State America in just a couple of years; take that Texas!