The New York Times gives away the game yet again in another opinion piece on demography, liberal Democrats style. I didn’t find this until after the string of mass shootings of the past week, so it probably reads a bit different to me than was originally intended.
“In every presidential election for the past 50 years, a majority of white voters have voted against the Democratic nominee, and the overwhelming majority of people of color have sided with the Democrats.”
This is the major political divide in the US, and has been for a long time. Good luck trying to get this clarity on TV news, but on print in the Times, it probably feels like a safe space, with no one not in the club listening.
“What we learned in the 2016 election is that 37 percent of the white vote is enough to win the popular vote by nearly three million people. Obviously something went wrong in three critical states — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — where Mr. Trump prevailed by nearly 80,000 votes, tipping the Electoral College in his favor.”
Despite the overwhelming Electoral College victory Trump enjoyed, it was hanging by a hair, and that will be doubly true in 2020.
“Mrs. Clinton came exceedingly close to winning those states. Had she secured just 0.5 percent more of the white vote, she would be president.
…The number of voters who stayed home in 2016 in Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia was far larger than the margin of Democratic defeat in those states.”
This matches my conclusions from the result of the 2018 Midterms. Democrats have finally cracked the code on midterm turnout, and a turn out increase during a Presidential election year could yield big wins for Democrats.
“As people of color become a bigger portion of the voting population, the number of white votes required to win steadily shrinks. In fact, a group of think tanks released a report last year showing that if all of the country’s racial groups replicate in 2020 their voter turnout and partisan preferences of 2016 — essentially a “do-over” — the Democrats would win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, just because of the demographic changes over the past four years.”
Did someone just say, “Demography is Destiny?”
“America is getting browner by the hour, given that every single day, as of 2016 data, the United States population increases by 8,000 people and 90 percent of that growth comes from people of color. Moreover, an additional seven million teenagers of color will have turned 18 since the 2016 election. With this demographic revolution transforming the country, Democrats do not actually have to increase their level of white support — they just need to hold it steady, as the core of whites who vote Democratic have done for 40 years.”
I find myself in complete agreement with these conclusions. All things being equal, Democrats win just letting things continue as they have. It’s a bit amusing that this New York Times piece basically agrees with the El Paso shooter’s manifesto. That’s why I’ve found no comfort in the full measure of insanity that the Democratic Party has embraced. They’ve gone so far left so quickly, that Biden and Pelosi, liberals their entire political lives now find themselves “moderates.” But none of that really matters in modern day America.
The real question is can the GOP increase their percentage of the white vote to counter this? My obvious answer is no, since the establishment GOP doesn’t even accept this analysis. They still think tax cuts and political positions matter. Trump’s policy positions did matter to the 80,000 votes won in three States in 2016, but those people will likely be drowned out by the rising tide of identity politics voting. That’s why I think Trump’s chances of winning, even with the benefit of being an incumbent, are slim, and are shrinking as the author of that piece says, “every single day .“