October Surprises

It’s that time of the year again; the time when every possible food or drink sprouts a pumpkin spice equivalent and giant bags of discount candy clog the aisles of most American grocery and convenience stores.  Of course every four years it’s also the season of the October surprise, the media hit job designed by the Democrats and the media to take out whoever the Republican candidate is.

In 2016 it was famously the Hollywood Access tape, with its “grab them by the pussy” quote that the media was sure would destroy Trump and somehow…didn’t.  2012 had the more reliable release of the audio from Romney’s 47% quote which severely damaged his campaign.

This year is more challenging since Trump has been dealing with the equivalent of an October surprise every few weeks since he’s been President.  The media has never tired of releasing crazy stories based on “anonymous sources” that almost inevitably crap out and are never confirmable.  Most recently The Atlantic hit job, Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’. Anonymous sources that were later contradicted by at least 10 confirmed named sources. Trump has ridden all of that out.

So if you are part of the DNC-media establishment, what could possibly take down Trump?

  •  More sexual harassment accusations.  There could actually be Democratic groups preparing the latest batch of “victims” to go live in some massive media presentation right now.  The history of these types of accusations against Trump doesn’t have a very good success rate, but pile on, in conjunction with other October surprises, could be helpful.
  • Trump says the N-word.  There have actually been multiple accusations of this in the past, but a fresh one by someone who actually sounds credible (not Michael Cohen MSNBC!) could put Trump on the defensive for a news cycle, but ultimately wouldn’t be a lasting hit, unless of course there is video of it.

And my favorite:

  • The Southern District of New York US Attorney’s Office announces, or has leaked, a sealed indictment for Donald Trump, his family, or his business.  The indictment doesn’t have to be for a real crime and could go away after the election.  The important thing is that the story of an indictment is out there, right before the election.

There may be other types of October surprises in the wings that I’ve not thought of.  However Trump isn’t a normal politician and his idea of damage control is to go on the counter attack.  That’s a tactic that’s worked for him in the past, but one would think the media has learned something over the past four years and has a real zinger prepared to take out Trump in the final days of the election.

Or maybe not.

Election Foreboding

We’re down to the final election laps, coming in for a finish, and I’m filled with apprehensive thoughts about what’s to come.  Last year I wrote a piece in which I posited that although Trump has a chance to win again in 2020, it was a thin one, as the demographics of the electorate have gotten more unfavorable for Republicans four years later (as they do every four years) and all things being equal, Trump couldn’t win. His only chance was a major increase in turn out of his voters.  Turn out, in a country in which only about half the voting age population votes is crucial. 

However things never stay “equal” as 2020 brought us not only Covid, but “The Summer of George,” a social justice holocaust brought about by the death of George Floyd.  The rioting and arson got out of control almost exclusively as a result of Democratic governors, mayors, and city councils, which not only refused to do anything to stop the mayhem, but took the side of rioters. This provided us with the possibility, which I had discussed a few months ago, that the election may boil down to an election of normal people vs the Woke crazies.

A normal vs woke election would be good news for Trump, but there is still another wrinkle out there.  In 2016, we knew who the President was by the wee hours of the morning after Election Day.  This year, it seems likely that we may not know for days or weeks.  In 2016, the Democrats just did not believe they could lose; all of their smartest pundits and talking heads told them so, and they acted, or didn’t act, accordingly.  This year, they are well aware of the possibility and have pulled out all the stops to make sure that doesn’t happen.  And by all the stops, I mean election fraud and cheating.  The table is being set for that in state after state.  As I mentioned a few weeks ago, a Michigan judge overturned not only the law that required that mail in ballots arrive at the polls no later than Election Day, but also the law against ballot harvesting.  The combination of open ended receiving of late mail in ballots and allowing ballot harvesting probably spells doom for Trump’s chances in States that allow that.  Although Trump could possibly win Michigan on Election Day, it’s unlikely he would still be the winner ten days later.

The Democrats have already more or less promised Civil War if Biden loses, what about Trump Supporters if the election is lost and it appears it was lost due to voter fraud?  Republicans have traditionally swallowed hard and accepted the loss “for the good of the country.”  Most famously during the Presidential election of 1960 of Kennedy vs Nixon, Bob Dornan’s Congressional election, and Al Franken’s Senate race.  But that was then.  Democrats are used to Republicans rolling over for election fraud, and maybe they still think that would happen this year, but Trump is unlikely to accept his own defeat if there are actual, credible allegations of voter fraud in key states.

So I’m worried.